As reported by the IMF, adverse consequences of climate change are concentrated in regions with relatively hot climates, where a disproportionately large number of low-income countries are located. The unrelenting effects of climate change are becoming increasingly evident on the African continent, with the most vulnerable being struck the hardest, instigating food and water insecurity; population displacement; and threatening socio-economic development. An increase in global temperatures will cause a considerable decline in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of all five sub-regions of Africa.
The continent’s overall GDP is anticipated to decline by 2.25% to 12.12% in scenarios in which global temperatures rise by 1oC to 4oC above pre-industrial levels (African Climate Policy Centre).
Crisis Impact Overview
The most disastrous season of flooding Nigeria has experienced in a decade has resulted in over 600 fatalities, over 1.4 million people displaced and approximately 200,000 homes destroyed (Reuters, October 2022). Due to heavy rains and poor urban planning, the majority of Nigerian states are prone to floods, with 33 of its 36 states currently adversely affected (SBMIntel, October 2022). Severe flooding has submerged residential houses, places of worship, household items, farm produce, and domestic animals, the most afflicted states being Jigawa, Kano, Kogi, Anambra, Bayelsa, Benue, Taraba, etc. Many Nigerians who live on flood plains cannot afford to move and will simply return to their residence once water levels have returned to normal levels.
Over the southern states of Nigeria, heavy rain is anticipated to persist (European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Operations, October 2022). The buildup of rainwater would conceivably result in more flooding along the Niger and Benue Rivers. As water is released from dams like the Lagdo Dam in Cameroon, riverine flooding is also likely to get worse. As a result, there may be an increase in the number of impacted and displaced individuals. Loss of human life, property damage, crop destruction, livestock loss, and deteriorating health due to waterborne infections are all examples of the immediate impact of floods in Nigeria.
Anticipated Scope and Scale
A cholera outbreak has been brought about by the floodwaters in the BAY states (Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe), with over 7,700 recorded cases, and 324 mortalities across the three states (United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, October 2022). Flooding has affected many health facilities and left many completely submerged and unusable, a lack of access to hygiene services will only serve in aggravating the diffusion of various waterborne diseases rife in the country.
Numerous crops were destroyed in the floods, especially in the northern region of the country, where the majority of Nigeria’s food is grown. Over 630,000 hectares of land have been inundated nationwide due to flooding since June 2022 (World Food Programme, October 2022). Concerns are raised regarding how the floods may affect the nation’s food supplies, which are already experiencing pre-existing interruptions as a result of armed conflict in northern and central regions. In the BAY states alone, 4.1 million people may experience severe food shortages due to the country’s high levels of food insecurity (United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, September 2022). Food scarcity across the country will likely be as a result of these agricultural losses.
Approximately 70% of the population relies on subsistence farming, the devastation of crops and agricultural regions is adversely affecting the livelihoods of the majority (Nations Encyclopedia, October 2022).
Flooding has damaged several communication cables, bridges, and highways, rendering some towns completely unreachable and unable to access services. Many Local Government Areas (LGAs), which were housing displaced peoples are reachable only by helicopter (United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, October 2022). Approximately over 113.3 km of highways in Lokoja, Kogi state, are under water (International Charter, October 2022). The flooding has ruined many crucial roads that eight communities used to access the rest of Anambra state, leaving them and many others across the country with little choice except to use boats.
One of Nigeria’s top oil and gas producing states, Rivers State, has seen considerable flooding. As a result, gas production has been stopped in the affected areas and supply disruptions are anticipated both nationally and from Nigeria to Europe. This will mean higher levels of inflation for Nigeria and an increase in retail prices of petrol and other resources. When compared to the price recorded in September 2022 (N191.65), the average retail price consumers paid for Premium Motor Spirit (Petrol) in August 2022 was N189.46, representing a 1.15% increase. According to a state profile analysis, Kano State had the highest average retail price for Premium Motor Spirit (Petrol) with N207.50, followed by Jigawa with N205.62 and Bayelsa with N204.2 (National Bureau of Statistics, September 2022).
Disruptions to the power supply may also be expected, further isolating affected persons. Since the export of fossil fuels accounts for over 90% of Nigeria’s foreign exchange, the current economic crisis in Nigeria is likewise anticipated to get worse (Euronews, October 2022).
Inflation in Nigeria increased to 20.77% as of September 30 2022, marking the highest level in 17 years. The cost of basic food has been rising, making it increasingly difficult for citizens to access food. Fuel prices continue to raise already high production and transportation costs. Socio-economic conflicts are being brought on by rising food, fuel and fertilizer costs. The floods will put immense pressure on an already strained economy as the government works to respond to the disaster in the face of large debt burdens and constrained budgetary flexibilities.
Response Capacity
As there has been no comprehensive needs assessment, information regarding humanitarian needs are limited to speculation.
NEMA South South Zone in coordination with the Nigerian Navy, the Nigerian Red Cross and Local Volunteers attempted an evacuation operation to aid flood affected persons from Rivers and Bayelsa States (National Emergency Management Agency, October 2022).
While we are yet to hear from many government officials regarding the situation, the Nigerian Minister of Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management Sadiya Umar Farouq, has urged authorities in southern states that border the coast to evacuate those living near waterways or other areas that may obstruct water flow. Despite copious forewarnings, the minister admitted, numerous states did not fully prepare for the floods; “while we shall not apportion blame, we need to acknowledge the fact that we all had enough warnings and our advocacy was timely”. The nation has since effected a national response plan for all states and LGAs.
However, it is clear that there is still much more to be done. Nigeria must consider solutions involving long-term infrastructure investment, particularly in the construction of climate-smart buffer dams to efficiently contain excess water releases from the Lagdo dam and of raised bridges in places like Lokoja to avoid commuters from becoming stranded in the future. Additionally, the country must position itself to be ready for dangerous climate-related occurrences by introducing or modifying community surveillance and early warning systems for flood prevention and mitigation.
Immediate measures for relief that can be implemented right away include:
- Integrating flood risk management with spatial planning and urgent humanitarian coordination forums in vulnerable states to avoid repetition of reactionary measures.
- Administration of interventions that support families and communities to recover losses.
- Private sector funding to assist victims that have been displaced, with the aim to supply more food, temporary housing, and medical and sanitary care for the afflicted communities.
Author: Tomilola Ani-Mumuney, Junior Analyst
